NBA Playoffs player prop picks: Nikola Jokic among best bets for 4/29

Celtics vs. Heat

Monday, Apr 29, 7:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Nikola Jovic More Than 14.5 Points + Rebounds (PrizePicks)

Nikola Jovic is averaging 12 points and 7.7 rebounds per game through the first three games of this series. He has surpassed this points and rebounds line in all three games and is also earning more minutes from coach Erik Spoelstra. In Game 3, Jovic played a series-high 33 minutes and finished with 15 points and eight rebounds.

Jovic's 3-point shooting has provided a boost to a Miami team that struggled to score in the regular season and has also had difficulties at times during this series. Jovic has knocked down 8-of-15 3-point attempts in this series and has gotten two-thirds of his points in this series from deep. Since he is shooting over 50% from 3 in the series, regression is certainly possible. However, that's one of the reasons I'm targeting this combo.

Jovic has hit his points, rebounds and 3s made projections in all three games. By extension, he's also hit this combo. He is averaging nearly 20 points and rebounds per game in this series and if he struggles offensively, but still has something like eight points and eight rebounds, we'll still be in the green.

Thunder vs. Pelicans

Monday, April 29, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBA TV
Isaiah Joe Over 1.5 Made 3s (+140, DraftKings)

Through the first three games in this series, the Thunder are averaging 13.7 3s per game and are shooting 42.3% from behind the arc. It has been a balanced effort as five players have made at least five 3s. This was an area I expected Oklahoma City to exploit as the Pelicans allowed the second-most attempts from 3 in the regular season. Tonight, I'm backing Isaiah Joe.

After making one 3 in Game 1, Joe has hit this line in each of the past two games. He might not have many opportunities as he is averaging 13.3 minutes and 3.3 3-point attempts per game in this series, but that's fin in this spot. Joe has shot over 40% from three in each of the past two regular seasons and is shooting 50% in this series.

Additionally, several of his attempts are wide-open looks because of the spacing Oklahoma City creates with its five-out philosophy. That is why Joe doesn't need many attempts to hit this line. Also, Joe is a knockdown shooter and I simply can't pass up the value here as we only need two 3s.

Lakers vs. Nuggets

Monday, April 29, 10 p.m. ET, TNT
Nikola Jokic Over 41.5 Points + Rebounds (-106, FanDuel)

Over the past two postseasons, the Lakers and Nuggets have played eight times. In those games, Nikola Jokic has averaged 28.4 points and 14.9 rebounds per game. He has had 42 points and rebounds in five of those games, including three of four in this series.

In this year's series, Anthony Davis and Jokic are essentially playing each other to a standstill — Davis is averaging 46.3 points and rebounds, Jokic is at 44.3. The question entering tonight's game is the status of Jamal Murray, who is questionable with a calf strain. Given that it is a playoff game — and a closeout game at that — I expect Murray to give it a go. I like Jokic to hit this line regardless of whether Murray plays, but it's worth noting that Jokic is more aggressive offensively when he doesn't have his co-star.

When Murray missed all of the 2021-22 season, Jokic averaged 27.1 points per game. Since then, he averaged 24.5 points per game last season and 26.4 in the regular season this year.

Conservatively, Jokic will have 10-12 rebounds tonight as he has had at least 12 in each of the first four games. If Denver needs more scoring, Jokic will likely have his third 30-point game of the series — and hits this line in the process.